How widely the virus is spreading
Pandemics are typically described in terms of curves or waves, as Dr. Asija explains. The pandemic usually stops after a few waves, as most of the people get infected and develop a herd immunity, this is what stops the spread of the virus.
Additionally, every virus has unusual preferences for things like climate, age groups, gender, and other unexplained factors, according to Dr. Asija. This indicates how the virus will spread among different age groups and geographical regions, with some aspects having flatter curves than others.
Given that we are still in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak which doesn’t yet show signs that it will be over soon, it is still unclear exactly how the spread will continue. However, unlike a disease like Ebola, COVID-19 has significantly impacted the United States and developed from an epidemic into a full-blown pandemic.
How long it can remain undetected
Another important aspect of a virus is how long it can remain in a person undetected, without an individual showing symptoms. This overlooked aspect may be the reason why some specific countries that perform fewer tests have higher mortality rates, according to epidemiologist Dimitar Marinov, MD, PhD.
“COVID-19 has a longer incubation period than any other pandemic we have seen so far,” he explains. The incubation period is five to seven days on average but can reach up to 14 or even 27 days in some rare cases.
Moreover, a recent study suggests that nearly 20 percent of those infected do not have symptoms. “This allows for a large spread of the infection before all the cases are found and isolated and can make containing the outbreak almost impossible,” Dr. Marinov adds.
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